In yesterday’s cryptocurrency (crypto asset) trading, Bitcoin has risen sharply and is moving to hit a new year-to-date high. It is showing a movement approaching the highest price in history, and it can be seen that there is a strong willingness to buy Bitcoin. In addition, other coins have also risen sharply, and we are particularly aware of the increasing pressure to buy Ripple. As risk-oriented movements intensify, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at a level above $ 30,000 in the US stock market, funds are flowing into the entire virtual currency (cryptographic asset) market.
Now, Rick Leader, chief information officer of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management company, said, “Bitcoin is more functional than gold bars and will replace gold.” ..
Personally, as I have said many times here, Bitcoin and gold do have similar properties in that they have a limited supply, but they differ greatly in their role as safe assets. There is a sense of incongruity that Bitcoin will replace gold.
However, at present, gold is also incorporated into the market as one of the financial products, so the movements of Bitcoin and gold may be linked. If the flow of cashing assets is strengthened in a situation where risk aversion is rapidly increasing, it is possible that Bitcoin or gold will be sold. I think it would be a mistake to judge that Bitcoin and gold are highly correlated.
It’s a bit off the topic, but I think it’s difficult in some ways for Bitcoin to replace gold. First of all, there is a question as to whether Bitcoin is currently too volatile and suitable as a means of storing value. Of course, the price of gold also fluctuates, but the fluctuation is slower than that of Bitcoin.
At present, the supply of Bitcoin is set at 21 million, but it is technically possible to increase this. In the past, there was a debate about whether it should be increased, so it is uncertain what will happen in the future. This is because there is concern that as the issue limit approaches, miners are more likely to leave the Bitcoin blockchain network, threatening security. So far, the withdrawal of minors has not been regarded as a problem due to the rise in prices, but if the hash rate drops without raising the price after several half-lives, the issuance limit will be abolished again. There is a possibility that there will be a growing voice that it should be done.
On the other hand, Bitcoin has the advantage of being money. It is easy to carry and there is no risk of physical theft. Of course, there are problems such as hacking, but you don’t have to keep it in the safe. Also, as mentioned above, high volatility can be said to be an advantage as a financial product.
There are many other differences, and I think Bitcoin will not replace gold. Both are independent financial products, and each has its own characteristics. I think it is better to identify the characteristics and make an investment that suits you.
Looking at Bitcoin’s daily Bollinger band, it rises supported by the band’s + 1σ, and it is a movement that adjusts from the movement conscious of + 2σ. It should be noted that there is a good chance that it will rise to + 2σ again. As the band’s ± 2σ is on an upward trend, the trend itself is on the upside and the downside is likely to continue to move steadily. However, since it is difficult to move from band break to band walk, adjustment movement will be easy to enter at + 2σ.
Looking at Stochastic Oscillators,% K and% D are in the high range. % K is on a recovery trend, and% D is on a low trend. Since it continues to move in the high price range, it seems that it is easy to be aware of solid movement. If% K moves from the high price range to a fall, the adjustment movement is likely to strengthen temporarily.
Looking at Bitcoin’s 4-hour Bollinger band, the movement across the center line of the band suddenly rises to + 2σ of the band, and it becomes a band walk from the band break. However, there is a movement of adjustment in the near future, and we are paying attention to whether or not it will continue to fall toward the center line of the band. However, -2σ of the band is on a downward trend, and the bandwidth is on an expanding trend. It is possible that it will rise again and become a band walk, so be careful about that point. The situation is that we are paying attention to the direction of -2σ of the band.
Looking at Stochastic Oscillator,% K and% D are down from the dead cross. % K has fallen from the highs, and if it continues to decline, the flow of sales will strengthen. The immediate situation is a sell-dominant phase, and if the flow is maintained as it is, it is likely to fall toward the center line of the band.