Bitcoin has been the most performing and vigorous currency in six of the last seven years, with its value rising from zero to $ 1,190.
But Snapchat’s first investor, Jremy Liew, and Blockchain CEO and co-founder, Peter Smith, said, “Bitcoin hasn’t really reached its potential yet.” Says. The two argue that the value of Bitcoin could reach $ 500,000 in 2030. Below is the basis for their ideas.
○Remittance using Bitcoin.
According to the World Bank, foreign or electronic remittances have doubled in the last 15 years, reaching 0.76% of global GDP.
“Foreign residents are beginning to realize that Bitcoin is an inexpensive means of remittance. Bitcoin remittances will increase exponentially with the spread of Bitcoin.”
They expect growing interest in Bitcoin due to growing political instability in the United Kingdom, the United States and developing countries.
“Bitcoin’s awareness, liquidity, convenience, and rising interest rates due to rising geopolitical risks will make Bitcoin a big investment for both users and investors.”
○Spread of smartphones.
With the further spread of smartphones, they expect the proportion of non-cash transactions to increase from 15% today to 30% in 10 years.
The global smartphone penetration rate is currently 63%, and the number of users is projected to increase by another 1 billion by 2020. At that time, 90% of users will be from developing countries, according to the GSM Association, which is a member of the world’s mobile operators.
They believe that the spread of smartphones will increase the number of Bitcoin users and account for 50% of non-cash transactions.
The framework of their predictions is as follows.
１ In 2017, the price of 1 Bitcoin is $ 1000.
２ By 2030, the number of Bitcoin users will increase 61 times. “To reach $ 500,000 in Bitcoin in 2030, we need a quarter of China’s population (5% of the world’s population),” they told Business Insider. The number of Bitcoin users increased 54 times from 120,000 in 2013 to 6.5 million in 2017. But this is just the beginning. At current growth scale, the number of users could reach 400 million in 2030.
３ The value of Bitcoin owned by one person reaches $ 25,000. “With the entry of institutional and veteran investors and investment trusts using Bitcoin, we expect the value of Bitcoin held by one person to reach $ 25,000,” they said. Currently, Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $ 16.4 billion and 6.5 million users. The average Bitcoin holdings of users are worth $ 2515.
４ In 2030, the market capitalization of Bitcoin will be determined by multiplying the number of Bitcoin holders by their average holdings.
５ In 2030, the supply of Bitcoin will reach about 20 million Bitcoins.
６ In 2030, the price of 1 Bitcoin will reach $ 500,000 and the number of users will reach 400 million. The price of this 1 Bitcoin is the market capitalization of $ 10 trillion divided by the number of Bitcoins supplied, 20 million Bitcoins.
Of course, this is not always the case. Recently, Bitcoin-related news has been in a negative tone.
Bitcoin trading is almost 100% dependent on China. However, China has begun trading restrictions. The three largest exchanges have announced that they will charge a 0.2% commission on all transactions and have suspended withdrawals from their trading accounts.
In addition, the SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission) has rejected the approval of the two Bitcoin funds that have been applied for and announced that it will impose restrictions on similar funds in the future. But Smith believes Bitcoin is still in its infancy.
“I’m not surprised by the SEC’s decision. It’s expected that it will take some time to get approval. Bitcoin is already an easy buy and sell and a sophisticated asset. Bitcoin related Product growth will continue. ”
Bitcoin has not been officially approved in the United States, but was approved in Japan as a legal payment method on April 1.
One of the threats to Bitcoin’s future is the “hard fork”, which makes incompatible updates to Bitcoin and invalidates older versions of Bitcoin. It means an unlimited number of incompatible Bitcoins, but Smith said you don’t have to worry.
“Bitcoin has a strong incentive to prevent this from happening. Bitcoin is a surprisingly strong and stable currency. In fact, the Bitcoin blockchain has never been down for more than seven years. No other backend system is running at this scale. ”
It should also be noted that Bitcoin, unlike traditional currencies, is extremely volatile in price. For example, it rose 20% in the first week of 2017, but then fell 35% as China began to regulate.
Prices are now recovering, rising 25% this year.
Then Over 30,000$ now.
※Information from business insider.